The political situation in Georgia is increasingly resembling the Russian-Belarusian-Azerbaijani one. Bidzina Ivanishvili’s government is trampling on human rights and trying to establish an Eastern-type authoritarianism. The Georgian people are faced with a life-and-death choice – to continue walking the European path or to accept despotic rule.
„The main task of Georgian society is to fight against “Azerbaijanization” – do not allow the immorality of the government to infect and make society sick” – Afgan Mukhtarli
What is happening in Georgia anyway?
One of the latest striking examples is the attack on actor and musician Vaniko Tarkhnishvili by the “Titushki” gang outside his own home. The beating was captured on video and distributed on state television and social networks. The criminal activity of “mercenaries” in the country has reached unimaginable proportions.
We should not forget the facts of the beatings and injuries to the health of Guram Rogava, Davit Katsarava, Levan Khabeishvili and numerous civil activists, when most of them had their noses broken and their faces disfigured with bruises. The government has not investigated any of the facts and has not brought the perpetrators to justice.
Opposition leaders are locked up in prison because they cannot appear before the parliamentary investigative commission. Ivanishvili’s appointee Kavelashvili calls for them to appeal, and he will pardon them. In response, the arrested are sending him to a “Russian warship”.
Against this background, the parent of the third prisoner of conscience has died. “Girchi” Zura Japaridze takes the escort to rest for half an hour without leaving the page for a minute. The episode will remain in the dark past of the country, without unnecessary commentary.
The negotiations for accession to the European Union have been suspended. The candidate status is frozen and devoid of content. In case of non-fulfilment of specific requirements (democratic reforms), Europe will consider revoking the visa-free regime with Georgia.
How did we get here?
Last May, the parliament adopted a “Russian law” restricting civil society and media outlets. Protests of thousands of people against this were dispersed with brutal methods. Deprived of freedom, beaten and tortured journalists, civil activists and political leaders have become an everyday occurrence in the country.
Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced on November 28 that the Georgian government would not open negotiations with the European Union until the end of 2028, while Article 78 of the Georgian Constitution obliges constitutional bodies to take all measures for integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures. The public faced fierce opposition to another pro-Russian step by the “dream”.
Events logically continued until the autumn parliamentary elections. The West did not recognise the results of the rigged vote and called on the government to return to the path of democratic development (rerun elections). In response, Ivanishvili’s government intensified repressions, the results of which we are reaping every day.
What is the situation (are there similar facts and processes) in neighbouring Azerbaijan?
„The roads to dictatorship are the same, the Georgian government is heading through Azerbaijan, but they have started moving very quickly in Tbilisi” – Afgan Sadigov.
Afgan Sadigov, an Azerbaijani journalist released on bail from a Georgian prison (living in Tbilisi), tells us that in his homeland, human rights are violated at every step, people live in fear of the police and experience brutal oppression:
„Those who demand protection of their rights are slandered and imprisoned. The constitution and laws exist only on paper. Dictator Ilham Aliyev rules the country at his whim.”
He also says that officials are stealing Azerbaijan’s wealth: “From the outside, everything looks different. Government media and trolls spread false information. Almost all independent media and human rights defenders are in prison.”
The exiled reporter says that the paths to dictatorship are the same. According to his observations, the Georgian government is heading along the same path as Azerbaijan:
„But they have started moving very quickly in Tbilisi. All the officials are controlled by one person (Ivanishvili). Their policy is to intimidate, oppress and keep the people under the yoke. The laws adopted, all the decisions will serve only the (personal) interests of the government.”
Sadigov adds that there is still a chance to avoid this catastrophe:
„Then it will be too late. The government is becoming increasingly powerful and is squandering all its resources. People are getting weaker both physically, materially, and morally. Don’t be afraid! The path to success and victory does not lie only in self-defence! Can we achieve anything by covering our faces, wearing masks, and appearing in the square for 2-3 hours every evening? The government should not see that we are afraid of it!”
According to the activist, today the government does not treat people harshly because it does not feel threatened: „It uses a different method of pressure – it imposes high fines on protesters. They put more than a hundred thousand protesters under a different kind of pressure, because at that time the government felt threatened.”
Sadigov calls on the international community not to be satisfied with statements and recommendations: „Implement strict sanctions against the rulers. The government must submit to the will of the people, in which the international democratic community must play a crucial role.”
Afgan Mukhtarli, a journalist who was kidnapped from Georgia (now living in Germany), tells us that the principles of the rule of law, equality and human dignity do not exist for the Azerbaijani government. According to him, laws are made exclusively for the Aliyev family and a small group of oligarchs associated with it:
„The constitution is tailored to the needs of the family. The provisions prohibiting the election of one person as president more than twice have been abolished. Ilham can remain president for the rest of his life. His wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, holds the position of First Vice-President, although the law prohibits close relatives from working in the same government agency.”
According to him, all sectors of the economy – industry, agriculture, trade, mining, logistics, aviation, even the sale of sunflower seeds – are under the Aliyev family monopoly:
„Let me give you an example: according to the Georgian Statistics Service, 1,038 companies are engaged in the gambling business. Now a law on casinos has been adopted in Azerbaijan. It is widely known as “Emin Agalarov-2”, because only Ilham Aliyev’s former son-in-law, Russian billionaire Emin Agalarov, can run the business. All laws are tailored to the interests of the family. The legislation regulating public administration, public life and the media has also been changed in favour of Aliyev and has acquired a reactionary character.”
Mukhtarli says that the laws on political parties, media and NGOs are more regressive than the so-called “Russian laws” (e.g. on foreign agents) that are now adopted in the post-Soviet countries under the influence of Georgia and Russia. According to him, Azerbaijan’s sectoral law effectively abolishes the media:
„Cooperation with foreign media and international organisations is prohibited. Based on reactionary laws, Aliyev abolished independent media. The management and editorial staff of independent media outlets (Meydan TV, Azbas Media, and Toplum TV) have been arrested. There are more than 40 journalists in Azerbaijani prisons, 9 of whom are women. Non-governmental organisations independent of the government have been closed. Prominent human rights defenders Anar Mamadli and Bashir Suleymanov have been arrested on trumped-up charges.”
The exiled journalist tells us that, apart from the Popular Front and Musavat, there are practically no opposition parties: „Both of these parties are under pressure. The Popular Front party has been operating without an office for more than 10 years. About 40 fictitious, so-called bus opposition parties support Aliyev’s policies.”
Mukhtarli claims that the Azerbaijani authorities systematically degrade human dignity. According to him, citizens experience such discrimination not only in law enforcement agencies and prisons, but also in all state institutions:
„Torture has become a form of humiliation of human dignity and, unfortunately, the norm. The Aliyev regime uses particularly degrading forms, including sexual torture, which is widespread. Many prisoners report threats of having their internal organs inserted into their bodies (raped with handcuffs), and in some cases, these threats have been carried out.”
„The main task of Georgian society is to fight against the “Azerbaijanization” of Georgia – do not allow the government’s immorality to infect and make society sick” – Afgan Mukhtarli.
According to him, a visible indicator of human rights is freedom of elections – every person has the right to choose and be elected freely:
„Since 1993, presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections in Azerbaijan have been completely falsified. The European Union and the Council of Europe have adopted dozens of resolutions condemning the systematic falsification. The European Court of Human Rights has issued hundreds of decisions on cases of violations during elections. In a country where there is no freedom of elections, there is no need to talk about other freedoms.”
According to Mukhtarli’s observations, there are significant similarities between the Aliyev-Ivanishvili regimes. According to him, both are corrupt, anti-democratic, openly involved in election fraud, and torture citizens:
„The regimes are driving the population into the hell of slavery. However, Ivanishvili’s government has not yet succeeded in establishing an absolute dictatorship. The one-party parliament, the execution of illegal orders by the police and other security forces, indicate that Ivanishvili is trying to develop a second dictatorship in the Caucasus.
I have seen many videos of protests showing police brutality against Georgian youth and activists. It reminded me of the demonstrations in Baku. We are also familiar with falsified trials. I read the final testimony of 19-year-old Saba Jikia, who was sentenced to 4 years and 6 months in prison: “I understood the price of freedom and I will have a beautiful story to tell my grandchildren.”
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According to Mukhtarli, Saba’s words are impressive, but „unfortunately, my country, Azerbaijan, is full of such stories”:
„I am following the trial of Netgazeti founder Mzia Amaglobeli. I am deeply disappointed to see how Georgian judges, who were making fair decisions not long ago, are turning into instruments of the regime. Georgians, you should know that this is an extremely dangerous trend.”
Mukhtarli says that the offer of illegitimate President Mikheil Kavelashvili to pardon political prisoners is immoral (in exchange for participation in municipal elections), which is a clear example of humiliation of human dignity. According to his assessment, this is already “Azerbaijanization”!
„Another party, „Lelo – Strong Georgia”, is a radical change in the political orientation. A similar thing happened in Azerbaijan, when the leader of an opposition party, having survived political imprisonment, turned into a propagandist for the Aliyev regime. We are seeing the beginning of a perverse process in Georgia.”
The most dangerous thing for Afghanistan is that Ivanishvili unconditionally obeys the Putin and Aliyev regimes. According to him, he unquestioningly carries out the orders of Moscow and Baku:
„My kidnapping, the illegal arrest of Afgan Sadigov, the kidnapping of Russian oppositionists and their transfer to Moscow – all this is clear evidence. The free activity of foreign intelligence services in Georgia poses a threat to the country’s security.”
Finally, Mukhtarli notes that the immorality of the authorities in Azerbaijan has led to the degradation of moral values in society: “The main task of Georgian society is to fight against the “Azerbaijanization” of Georgia. Do not allow the government’s immorality to infect and sicken society.”
Mukhtarli reminds us that the Council of Europe has suspended Azerbaijan’s membership, which is not enough. According to him, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States should impose personal sanctions against the Georgian and Azerbaijani authorities:
„In the case of Azerbaijan, sanctions should be extended to the Aliyev family’s businesses, including the oil and gas sector, both in Azerbaijan and in Europe. In Georgia, sanctions should be imposed by blocking the bank accounts of Ivanishvili and other officials, as well as their business structures. It is necessary to isolate both regimes from the civilised world. In this context, the latest EU resolution is a success.”
A member of the political party “Musavat” (exiled in Norway), Dashgin Agalarli, tells us that lawlessness and dictatorship have reigned in Azerbaijan for a long time. He tells us about facts that, according to him, are known to the world:
„Journalists, human rights defenders, activists and opposition representatives are being illegally detained and tortured en masse. The free press has been abolished. There is still a free press and human rights organisations in Georgia; lawyers and advocates still operate freely.”
According to Agalarli, during the first wave of repression in 2005, about 300 prominent activists were arrested in Azerbaijan. He also said that in 2013-14, he was arrested in Georgia: „The entire civil society (journalists, activists, politicians) was thrown into prison. During the third wave of repression in recent years, all elements of the free press were eradicated. Three online media outlets that were preserved, Azbas Media, Toplum TV, and Meydan TV, were all closed. Imagine, in recent times alone, there have been 40 such journalists who were active in the online space. Those arrested are victims of violence, torture, and inhuman treatment by the authorities at all stages.”
„I pray to God to save us from the horrors that Georgia is approaching. You should know how many innocent people were killed in Azerbaijan, including 5 famous journalists whom everyone knew and respected” – Dashgin Agalarli
Agalarli says that the next step is to close the republic’s borders – for years, you can’t enter or leave Azerbaijan by land. According to him, there is only air travel, which the clan is involved in:
„The transport business belongs to the Aliyev family. Even within the country, the free movement of citizens is limited. For example, you won’t see two or three oppositionists together in a teahouse in the regional centre, drinking tea and resting. They are immediately temporarily detained or imprisoned. Ordinary critics of the government are caught on the spot, and the number of such people exceeds a thousand every year.”
According to his observations, the matter has not reached this point in Georgia. He recalls that he lived in Tbilisi for four years, of which he spent six months in prison:
„Ten years ago, we were documenting the facts of fraud and violence during the Georgian parliamentary elections. Then, Afgan Mukhtarli, Leila Mustafaeva, and I met with two American members of Congress. When we told them about the obvious violations, they told us that to avoid losing Georgia, we were turning a blind eye to some facts, and that this was not Azerbaijan after all. It didn’t take long to wait, and the following year, Afgan was kidnapped from Tbilisi by Ivanishvili’s subordinates. They also wanted to deport me, but then Mukhtarli’s kidnapping saved me.”
According to his assessment, those years laid the foundation for what is happening in the country today: „Corruption, facts of falsification, obvious violence in the election process, vote buying, etc. But in Georgia, the opposition voice was still heard; in Azerbaijan, it has long been dead. There, the so-called elections are called, and the lists are prepared in advance. In this case, they also falsify it, because the population does not go to the polls – it makes no sense anyway, they say.”
According to Agalarli, the constitution in Azerbaijan is completely formalised. According to him, they are constantly changing it to their taste:
„At first, Aliyev should not have been elected for more than two terms, then there were second, third, and fifth presidential terms. If this continues, there will be a sixth. There is a terrible indicator of monopoly and Corruption in the country. Economic freedom is neglected. It is not like this in Georgia yet, but it is slowly catching up with negative indicators, following in its footsteps.”
He also said that both sides have corrupt family-clan rule: „After the adoption of the last Russian law, Ivanishvili’s followers still said that the European Union is wrong to turn its back on us. As long as there is such rhetoric, some elements of democracy will be preserved. I pray to God that we will be saved from the horrors that Georgia is approaching. Today, Armenia is more or less different from us in this regard.”
Agalarli believes that in the end, the Georgian people will win: „The living people here are still in motion. In Azerbaijan, any opposition voice was suppressed, exterminated. You should know how many such innocent people were killed, including 5 famous journalists whom everyone knew and respected.”
Dashgin Agalarli tells us that hope dies in the end. According to his observations, the European Union, and European structures in general, wasted too much time in responding to Azerbaijan: „They did not openly and honestly protect the rule of law, the opposition, and the people from the naked violence of the government. They were more concerned with and implemented their interests.”
According to him, when Ilham Aliyev was elected president for the first term, an oppositionist was killed in Baku Square:
„They did not even include him in the reports or mention him. Perhaps the main concern was that he worked on oil contracts. The biggest problem in Azerbaijan is oil. Even in this situation, there is an opposition in Azerbaijan, talented people who believe in democracy and the future.”
According to Agalarli, bright days will come to Azerbaijan only when important events happen in the world: „For example, when we gained independence, great movements and events were taking place in the former Soviet Union, in Eastern Europe, which the world viewed with a completely different eye. Today, the most powerful country in the world supports authoritarians and dictators like Aliyev”.
In his opinion, the EU structures can do a lot in Georgia.
„As they started, they should continue to support the Georgian people and conduct constant negotiations. The logical question is, why should Ivanishvili be tied to Russia, when this country is not taking any countermeasures in the issue of the occupation of Georgian territories? And the Georgian people can do great things for their country more than the EU. I know and believe in the Georgian people, but the opposition should not be divided either. A strong opposition coalition should be formed to expel the Ivanishvili clan from the government. All grievances and useless discussions should be <Let them forget that under these conditions, the Georgian people will surely win sooner or later>”, Dashgin Agalarli adds.
Why is Ivanishvili trying to establish Russian-style authoritarianism?
„Moscow will never tell Ivanishvili to hold fair elections, have an independent, impartial court, and democratic institutions, which is what Europe, the democratic world, demands of us” – Paata Zakareishvili.
According to conflict expert Paata Zakareishvili, the main problem is that Georgia is still a post-Soviet space, and Ivanishvili is a person of Soviet, Russian traditions. According to him, Ivanishvili has been effectively buying power in Georgia since 2012:
„He made money there, returned, and doesn’t know the rest of the world. He first collaborated with the National Movement, didn’t leave, and turned to independent politics. He is implementing Russian politics because Russia itself is an authoritarian state. It accepts vulnerable, disabled states that are dependent on it. Moscow will never tell Ivanishvili to hold fair elections, have an independent, impartial court, and democratic institutions, as Europe and the democratic world demand.
As a small country, Georgia should be in some orbit. Back during Shevardnadze’s time, we chose to join NATO, and we submitted our application in 2002. Also, during Saakashvili’s time, we started moving towards Europe. His authoritarianism also alienated society and strengthened sympathy for Ivanishvili. Against this background, it is obvious that we can no longer connect with Europe and Russian authoritarianism. We are fighting because we refuse, we curse, we accuse them of starting a war, etc. At this time, the only state that can shelter us in terms of values is Russia. Therefore, it is the most acceptable option for Georgian post-Soviet authoritarianism.
Now, neighbouring Azerbaijan has imposed an undemocratic, un-European path on Turkey for the first time in the post-Soviet space. This is its civilisational, cultural, linguistic and religious choice. Turkey is still a NATO member state, it also wants to join the European Union, and most importantly, Turkey has the most democracy in the region. Although there are also big problems there, if it were not oriented towards Turkey, the only one left would be Russia.”
Is it still possible for Russian authoritarianism to be entrenched in Georgia?
Zakareishvili: „It’s impossible so that it will be a struggle. Ivanishvili is already an elderly man; he arrived late. First-rate or more or less well-known political figures have grown up in front of the eyes of Georgian citizens. We have known Shevardnadze since the communist era. Everyone has seen the energetic Saakashvili since his youth. We can talk about Gamsakhurdia and everyone else in this way.
Ivanishvili arrived in Georgia in his current form, with a lot of money. Even in Russia, his past is not normally known. He arrived late and could not even form a team. Look at how many people he expelled from his entourage. He expelled more than they could have dreamed of today. Some people are constantly leaving him. Those who do not go are fired from their jobs (this stage has come), those who do not leave are trying to commit suicide, for example, Rizhvadze. In other words, he has not been able to gather the team in any way; he is just lying and lying, and in the meantime, the years are passing.
The maximum possible 10-15 years are left for him to govern effectively. This is a long time for us, but it is bearable for the state if we do not get out of it before then. At the latest and in undesirable conditions, Georgia will still get out of this situation.
Ivanishvili is getting old and is already invisible. This man is not a policy maker; he is always hiding, which affects society. Kobakhidze, whom he finally selected, is very unpopular, which also does not work for his boss. Also, Georgians have always been anti-Russian since the communists – let’s remember April 9 and with them. Georgians cannot be loved, and Russia knows this best, more than Washington and Brussels.
Georgians do not like China (similar countries) either, and they love Europe; we are heading there. We may not fully understand what this Europe is, because it scares us with threats, with gay pride and male marriages. Someone is afraid, but we still want this Europe. Factors in many things It is decisive.”
According to the conflictologist, only our occupied territories are in Russia’s favour. According to him, Moscow can do nothing but use them:
„These resources will run out, the situation in Ukraine will be resolved more or less in favour of the Ukrainians, and Putin is no longer young and is more likely to leave than to stay. Against this background, Ivanishvili’s Russian project will also inevitably fail. We do not have riches – gas, oil, uranium, authoritarianism does not feed on the ground. We do not have money in the ground, and this money is in our heads, in our intellect. Let us think, move our hands and feet, and do the work. This requires democracy, which is inevitable for Georgia. This is our greatest wealth. Azerbaijan has oil. The diaspora can help Armenia. We have neither. Therefore, one of our solutions is the brain, which flourishes during democracy. Let us recall the examples of ancient Greece.”
What should Georgian society do to counter this violent process?
Zakareishvili tells us that we must counter all forms of peaceful struggle. According to him, this includes street protests and participation in new elections:
„Many criticise me regarding the local elections. If we refuse, a significant part of the parties and society will not come to the polls, and it turns out that the opposition is weak. The opponent sees that you are afraid, and that’s it, you have surrendered. This strengthens the dream. These unfortunate people were weak, they will say. Even the intermediate voter will say that there were scoundrels in this opposition; they could not even participate in the elections. What kind of struggle, what kind of revolution are they talking about? What kind of strikes and civil disobedience occurred when they missed the elections? This will be a tenfold defeat, rather than losing the mayoral or city council.”
What positions should the European Union (the West) take?
Zakareishvili says that the West is watching us because 80% of the countries on Earth are authoritarian and a thousand times worse than ours. According to his assessment, our authoritarianism is the most suitable for living:
„Take Russia, Belarus, not to mention the likes of Venezuela, there are many countries in the neighbourhood alone where the situation is catastrophic. So, things will not get any worse in Georgia; it will remain approximately as they are. If the Georgian Dream wins as it wants.”
According to him, the West is observing the will of the Georgian people:
„By boycotting the elections, they will see that the population does not know democratic institutions. You will be surprised if someone living by the lake is starving. You are a good person. The boat and net are right there. Go fishing and eat. Or go to the field, plough the land, plant and bring something – it will be tomatoes, beans or corn. You are not doing anything, and why should the West raise its hand?
We applied for membership in the European Union; no one forced us. Unlike Moldova and Ukraine, we were not given candidate status all at once. They tell us that if you want candidate status (you are coming to Europe), what does it mean to violate human rights, rig elections, destroy equality, etc? Be fine! Why do you want visa liberalisation? What do you want in this space at all if you do not recognise European values? The West can leave the door open. „It depends on us whether we enter or not. If we don’t enter for a year or two, they will close these doors and open them for someone else,” adds Paata Zakareishvili.
Psychologist Natia Panjikidze answers the question of whether distancing from the West is an existential threat for Georgia:
„Mostly, they list existential necessities – immigrants, medicine, welfare, etc. In reality, we are facing a greater, truly existential threat; otherwise, those mentioned above could be accepted in China and Turkey (before Turkey also becomes a member of the European Union).
Distancing from the West is an existential threat primarily from a cultural point of view. Georgia is breaking away from Christian civilisation. The nation is mainly a cultural phenomenon. The collapse of the bridge with Europe creates a prerequisite for a civilisational, cultural and identity crisis for Georgia,” says Natia Panjikidze.
Restrictions on democracy and freedom in Georgia have recently taken ugly, violent forms. Despite this, even the examples of neighbouring Azerbaijan show that it is impossible to stop the freedom-loving Georgian people under the yoke of shameful slavery. The protest rallies held on Rustaveli Avenue throughout the year are proof that the wolf instinct in Georgian citizens has not died out, and its salvation lies precisely in this inherent, natural state.
Georgia is approaching another Rubicon of civilisational choice. Unlike the pro-Russian government, the Georgian people have long firmly chosen the path of Western development. Tbilisi’s decision at the crossroads of Russian slavery and European freedom is clear. Europe must take all necessary steps to ensure that Tbilisi does not remain alone in the face of the war criminal Putin. In this regard, Ivanishvili’s ear-shorn subordinates and free Georgians must be considered separately at any stage, and a decision made.
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